Consultancy: Population Policies in East and Southern Africa in the context of emerging megatrends: A guidance for the development of sound policies to support the acceleration of sustainable development

International Consultancy: A guidance for the development of sound policies to support the acceleration
of sustainable development

Duty Station: Remote, supporting East and Southern Africa Regional Office

"Those who have applied need not reapply. All applications will be considered at once".

Duration of the contract and timeline: 22 August 2022 to 10 December 2022 (This assignment is for 4
Months, not exceeding 45 working days)

Deadline for applications: UPDATE: 18th August 2022, 5pm New York Time  

Background
From 648.6 million people in 2022, the population of 23 countries in the East and Southern Africa (ESA)
region is projected to reach 1.172 million billion by 2050 in a medium fertility variant scenario (UNDESA,
2022). Currently, 41 per cent of the population in these countries is below the age of 15, while young
people aged 10 to 24 years make up about 31 per cent of the population. The future of Africa and the
opportunity to meet the goals of Agenda 2030 and Africa Agenda 2063 lie in the ability of the continent to
transform and utilise its human capital. Africa’s current demographic structure, with a large youthful
population, provides a demographic dividend that can spur economic transformation. Beyond the simple
increment in the number and share of working-age population, the development and implementation of
sound policies in education and health, including family planning as well as an enabling macroeconomic
environment that facilitates job creation and access to decent employment would lead to increases in the
productive workforce and higher economic growth and rising per capita income. 

Emerging megatrends such as climate change, migration, urbanization, ageing and Covid-19 play a
significant role in shaping the prospects for sustainable development and the ability to meet the goal of the
Agenda 2030 and the African Union Agenda 2063 in the ESA region. Climate change has been called one of
the most significant challenges of our time and its disproportionate effects on countries makes it a
multiplier of existing vulnerabilities including those related to poverty, health and gender. Responding to
climate change must be a collective and intersectoral effort so future policies and development
programmes are responsive to climate impacts. Migration is a megatrend as the number of migrants in the
world is ever-increasing, which brings new challenges for countries in adequately responding to migrants’
needs and harnessing their capacities. If well-governed, migrants can, however, provide value to societies
through contribution to the labour force, cultural diversity and the transfer of resources, knowledge and
skills between the country of origin and destination. Urbanisation is one of the mega-trends affecting
sustainable development with more than two thirds of the world population projected to live in cities in
2050 and 80 percent of the population increase in Africa by 2050 occurring in cities. While unsustainable
urbanisation dynamics can lead to exacerbation of poverty, consolidation of slums and precarious living
conditions, urban areas with their large youthful populations can be engines for innovation and progress and an immense potential to social and economic development. If governments succeed in integrating
population and urbanization, they can harness demographic dividends and benefit the wellbeing of its
residents. Ageing with the rapid rise in the number of old people in developing countries is a megatrend
that will increase the demand for provision of social and health services. While this poses new challenges
for governments, the right set of policies and systems can foster a healthy and dignified ageing and
promote the participation of old people in the economic and social development of societies. Finally, the
Covid-19 pandemic brought unprecedented challenges not only on population health but also the path
towards sustainable development. Altogether, these megatrends will have far-reaching impacts for future
populations and it is therefore paramount that countries have adequate policies and frameworks in place to
understand and respond to such trends to shape the  path to sustainable development.

The International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994 in Cairo was a historic event in moving population policies and programmes away from a focus on human numbers to a focus on human
rights and sustainable development. Gathering stakeholders including 179 governments from around the
world, the ICPD Programme of Action emphasised the integral and mutually reinforcing linkages between
population and development and the need for development based on equity with gender equality at its
core and reproductive health as a basic right. The ICPD challenged the  historical notion of population
policies as instruments  for controlling population sizes through measurable policy targets and desired
fertility levels in society, which put undue pressure on women to conform to reproductive norms. Thus,  the
ICPD Program of Action represented a paradigmatic shift that recognises demographic trends as being
influenced by a complex and interconnected set of social, cultural, economic, environmental and political
factors and therefore requiring comprehensive, holistic policy responses that are based on evidence and
allow all people to exercise their full range of rights, including reproductive rights.

Policies that integrate population issues are necessary to help governments build demographic resilience
through proactive anticipation of and planning for demographic change and investing in education, health,
gender equality and access to decent work, for example, across generations. Additionally, policies can set a
transformative agenda by reconsidering traditional norms, especially related to the roles of women and
men in families and societies, that hold societies back from turning demographic challenges into
opportunities. Being complementary to national development strategies, policies that integrate population
issues can provide key recommendations for the integration of population trends across sectoral policies.

The policy process of influencing the integration of demographic dynamics into sustainable development
can be both channelled in a standalone population policy but can also be integrated in other sectoral
policies that can influence how population dynamics could affect broader sustainable development
outcomes.  

Population Policies in the ESA region 

Following the 1994 ICPD, several countries in the ESA region accelerated their work in setting up and
strengthening institutions and designing programmes to address different dimensions of population issues.
In the immediate period following the ICPD (1995 - 1999), several countries in the ESA region, including
Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana and Uganda, developed population policies.
Subsequently, more countries have developed or are in the process of developing population policies. Some
of the recently published population policies include Zambia in 2018, Malawi (2018), Botswana (2010),
Uganda (2020), Eswatini (2002), Lesotho and Kenya. Other countries are developing or have indicated a
commitment to develop a population policy. The scope and principles underpinning population policies that
are grounded in human rights principles in the region, including in their monitoring and accountability
mechanisms, are, however, not clear.       

The World Population Policies database provides a country-based overview of policies and government
views for population and development within different modules of population aspects. The most recent
13th inquiry from 2021 covers two modules of reproductive health and international migration to track
progress on SDG indicator 5.6.2 and indicator 10.7.2, respectively. In this review, however, only 13 out of 23
countries in the ESA region  reported on the reproductive health module and only 8 on the international
migration module. Moreover, as megatrends of ageing and urbanisation were only covered in previous
editions of the database and issues of climate change and Covid-19 are yet to be covered, there is a need
for a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of all policies related to population and development for the
ESA  countries to accelerate the implementation of the ICPD PoA.

Understanding population dynamics is essential as societies around the world strive to achieve the
ambitious and holistic Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Taking a human-rights based approach –
seeing the individual, their needs and potential – beyond the mere numbers of population trends without
leaving anyone behind is a fundamental part of this process. To update the ICPD reviews process
monitoring framework which closely aligns with the assessment of progress of SDGs, there is an important
need for a more thorough understanding of population dynamics and their relation to emerging
megatrends. This enhanced understanding will also be paramount for the upcoming ICPD+30 review and
the AADPD+10 review in 2024.

In furtherance of demographic resilience for sustainable development, UNFPA ESARO seeks to undertake a
review of population related policies and trends in the region and the related responses in addressing
challenges and opportunities created by the mega trends of our time which that can be used by member
states to strengthen the integration of population dynamics in their process towards sustainable
development.  Such policies or monitoring instruments should be anchored on equal access to
opportunities for all, support for human rights, including individuals’ reproductive rights and choices and
stronger collaboration and partnerships for responding to demographic changes and related mega trends.

Reporting Arrangements
The consultant will work under the direct supervision of the Population Dynamics Policy Advisor Angela
Baschieri supported by relevant technical and programme staff.  
In addition, the consultant will benefit from inputs and guidance from UNFPA experts in the country
offices and technical division.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered:
1. Inception report (approach and work plan) for delivering TOR objectives - 20 August 2022
2. Draft Report on overview of population trends and projection in ESAR & Summary overview of
population policies -  15 September 2022
3. Case studies framework for undertaking a review of national population policies - 10 November 2022
4. Draft guidance for formulation of policies that integrate population dynamics into sustainable
development - 10 November 2022
Facilitation of online consultation with stakeholders and final documents (max 50 pages) - 1 December
2022

Monitoring and progress control:
Bi-Weekly email and/or calls with UNFPA to discuss progress and findings, share working drafts and reports
and take decisions on the way forward.

Expected travel:

The consultant is not expected to travel.

General Objective
The aim of the assignment is to undertake a review of national population issues and population related
policies in the East and Southern Africa (ESA) region and develop a guidance for a new generation of
policies that integrate population dynamics and trends into sustainable development which reflects the
challenges and opportunities created by the mega trends of our time.

Roles and responsibilities:
The aim of the assignment is to undertake a review of national population issues and population related
policies in the East and Southern Africa (ESA) region and develop a guidance for a new generation of
policies that integrate population dynamics and trends into sustainable development which reflects the
challenges and opportunities created by the mega trends of our time.

Main outputs of the assignment:
1. Using available country aggregated data in ESAR provide an overview of population trends since
2000 and projections to 2070 in East and Southern Africa, classifying countries in low, medium and
high fertility and assess how emerging megatrends such as climate change, migration, population
ageing, urbanisation and Covid-19 will impact population profiles in the coming decades. (10 days)
2. Using the World Population Policy Database and other available primary and secondary sources as
proposed by the consultant, review and develop a summary overview of policies in ESAR related to
population issues (fertility, migration, ageing) and their inclusion of other megatrends such as
climate change, urbanisation and Covid-19. (10 days)
3. Identify and unpack 3 best practice case studies in the ESAR region of how countries have
implemented population policies in a human rights perspective and addressed megatrends of
migration, climate change, ageing and Covid-19. (10 days)
4. Develop a framework for undertaking a review of national population policies in the ESA region that
reflects commitment to demographic resilience for sustainable development.  (5 days)
5. Based on the review of population trends, impact of megatrends, the overview of population
policies and the population framework, develop a guidance for a new generation of policies that
integrate population dynamics and trends into sustainable development. The outline of the
guidance should be proposed by the consultant based on inputs from previous outputs and
finalized in discussion with UNFPA. (5 days)

Facilitate consultations with regional and national population stakeholders to discuss the
potential and usage of existing population policies and how recommendations have been
adopted across sectors (to review output 3 and 4) and validate the guidance for a new
generation of policies that integrate population dynamics and trends into sustainable
development (output 4) (5 days). 

Key Deliverables
 Inception report (approach and work plan) for delivering TOR objectives - 20 August 2022
 Draft Report on overview of population trends and projection in ESAR & Summary overview of
population policies -  15 September 2022

 Case studies framework for undertaking a review of national population policies - 10 November
2022
 Draft guidance for formulation of policies that integrate population dynamics into sustainable
development - 10 November 2022
 Facilitation of online consultation with stakeholders and final documents (max 50 pages) - 1
December 2022

Qualifications and Experience needed

Education
An advanced degree in demography or population studies, social sciences, development studies or a related
field.

Experience
 An advanced degree in demography or population studies, social sciences, development studies or
a related field.
 10 years of experience in conducting reviews, assessments, research studies in the field of
international development. 
 Substantive knowledge on the generation, analysis, dissemination and use of population policies
and population data for policy making.
 Knowledge on human rights based approaches, gender equality and mainstreaming and public
health
 Solid knowledge of evaluation approaches and methodology and demonstrated ability to apply
both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods.
 Excellent analytical, report writing, communication, and computer skills.
 Experience working with a multidisciplinary team of experts and experience working with national
governments in East and Southern Africa and UN organisations is an added advantage
 Examples of previous reports should accompany applications  
 Fluency in English required.

How to apply:
Interested applicants should send a short letter of motivation and a detailed CV with the subject clearly
stated "International Consultant – Population Policy" to jobs.esaro@unfpa.org . CV should highlight
relevant experience in delivering similar work with relevant links.
UNFPA will only respond to those applicants in whom we have further interest.

Disclaimer
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UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, teamwork, Embracing
diversity in all its forms, integrity, and a healthy balance of work and life. We are committed to maintaining
our balanced gender distribution and therefore encourage women to apply. UNFPA promotes equal
opportunities for all including persons with disabilities.