International Consultant on Demographic Policy Gap Analysis and Roadmap Development

Turkmenistan, in partnership with UNFPA, is advancing efforts to strengthen demographic resilience as a foundation for sustainable socio-economic development. A key aspect of demographic resilience is investing in human capital by ensuring equitable access to quality education, social protection, and economic inclusion, particularly for young people, women, and vulnerable populations, which is also outlined in national priorities, including the National Program on Socioeconomic Development in the period 2022-2052, and the Program of the President of Turkmenistan for the socio-economic development of the country for 2022–2028. 

While the country's population is relatively young, it is undergoing demographic shifts. The working-age population is projected to increase by nearly 1 million people by 2050, but the population aged 65 and over is also projected to more than double, from about 8% today to around 15% by 2050. The country also faces a high NEET rate (youth aged 15-29 not in education, employment, or training) at 14.9%, which is especially high among young women^[1].

Current challenges include a potential disconnect between education outcomes and labor market demands, along with a gender disparity, particularly with lower enrolment for young women in post-school education. While the share of education sector expenditures in the total amount of government expenditures is 10.3%^[2], spending on education also needs to increase to meet national targets for accelerating the SDGs. 

The current phase of national development presents a time-bound opportunity to invest strategically to harness the potential demographic dividend and prepare for an aging population. To maximize this potential, a comprehensive policy roadmap and institutional improvements are required to ensure the education and skills systems are equitable, resilient, and responsive to these evolving demographic and economic needs.

The Ministry of Education plays a central role in shaping the future workforce through expanding access to quality basic education, modernizing higher education and vocational training systems, and aligning education outcomes with labor market needs. Additionally, coordinated governance, reliable data systems, and inclusive policy frameworks are essential to maximize human capital potential, respond to demographic shifts, and build an adaptable, skilled population prepared for the future.

To inform these efforts are needed conceptual evidence, data-driven analysis, and policy recommendations to strengthen and accelerate human capital development, with technical support from UNFPA.

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide evidence-based, gap-focused policy analysis, conceptual frameworks, and institutional recommendations to the Ministry of Education. This will be achieved by first conducting a rapid, synthesized mapping of existing national and partner efforts (UN, GIZ, etc.) related to human capital development and demographic resilience. The final report will serve as a high-level strategic document... ensuring maximum efficiency by building upon existing groundwork.

The International Consultant will be responsible for conducting the analysis, stakeholder consultations, and the deliverables grounded in international best practices, especially those related to maximizing the demographic dividend and lifelong learning, and tailored to the specific context and national commitments of Turkmenistan. The work will proceed in three interconnected phases, leading to the two main products.

Phase 1: Inception and Rapid Policy & Institutional Mapping - 8 days

• Develop and submit an Inception Report detailing the methodology, work approach, detailed timeline, and proposed structure for the final deliverables, including a template for the policy and institutional mapping.
• Conduct a rapid, in-depth Policy and Institutional Mapping by: 

1. Synthesizing key national strategic documents (including those of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs) and partner-supported initiatives (e.g., UNDP, UNICEF, GIZ, etc.) relevant to human capital, skills development, labor market integration, and social protection. 
2. Analyzing existing institutional mechanisms and coordination platforms to identify roles, responsibilities, and potential duplication or gaps in addressing demographic challenges. 

• Analyze existing demographic and labor market data (e.g., Census 2022) to validate challenges, focusing specifically on where existing programmes fall short in addressing regional disparities, the high NEET rate (especially for young women), and gender gaps.

Phase 2: Policy Gap Analysis and Roadmap Development - 10 days

• Design a conceptual framework for demographic resilience through human capital development for the Ministry of Education, grounded in the findings from the policy mapping and a clear identification of policy and institutional gaps. This must align with international models and address the dual challenge of the youth bulge and population aging.
• Conduct a Gap Analysis of existing structures and propose prioritized Institutional Improvement Recommendations for mandatory and effective inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms among the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of Turkmenistan, the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Turkmenistan, and other relevant entities, with a view to:
• Systematizing skills forecasting (e.g., labor market information systems) and establishing an adaptive, modular lifelong learning (LLL) framework.
• Integrating social protection schemes (e.g., unemployment or disability support) to ease the school-to-work transition for vulnerable and unemployed youth (NEET).
• Develop specific, actionable, and gap-filling policy interventions and tools:
• Strengthening the quality of basic, secondary, and tertiary education, focusing on digital skills, green skills, and core employability skills.
• Addressing the NEET rate, particularly for young women, and reducing gender disparities in post-school education and training.
• Recommending mechanisms to close the gap between skills supply and labor market demands.
• Formulate recommendations for enhancing the national capacity for evidence-based policy planning, emphasizing the strengthening and maintenance of robust, high-frequency, disaggregated data systems to monitor human capital outcomes and inform public finance resource allocation in the education sector.

Phase 3: Validation and Finalization - 4 days

• Present and validate the draft Roadmap and Institutional Improvement Report through interactive and bilateral consultations with key national stakeholders (e.g., Ministry of Education, Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, UNFPA, and other relevant UN agencies/partners). (The consultant will prepare the presentation materials and attend the virtual workshop.)
• Finalize and submit the Comprehensive Policy Roadmap and Institutional Improvement Report, incorporating all feedback received during the validation process.

Deliverable 1. Inception Report including Policy and Institutional Mapping Template (November 24th)

Deliverable 2. Consultations and presentations (December 8th).

Deliverable 3. Draft Comprehensive Policy Roadmap and Institutional Improvement Report (December 15th).

Deliverable 4. Final Comprehensive Policy Roadmap and Institutional Improvement Report (December 19th).

Deliverable 5. Final Consultancy Report (December 22nd).

The UNFPA Turkmenistan Head of Office and Programme Coordination Associate will monitor the International Consultant’s work through reviewing submitted materials. The consultant will weekly provide an update on progress by email or ad-hoc, on challenges encountered and support needed. 

Ethical Considerations

UNFPA requires its consultants to adhere to ethical principles and standards when doing research. The selected consultant should clearly identify any potential ethical issues and approaches, as well as the processes for ethical review in the inception report.

National Ownership

The involvement of appropriate national partners will be a critical condition for the development of all the consultancy outcome materials in ensuring stakeholder ownership and its subsequent utilisation.

• Advanced university degree in Economics, Public Policy, Demography, International Development, Social Sciences, or Education Systems Planning is required.
• A minimum of 10 years of professional experience in conducting policy-oriented research and analysis on human capital development, demographic dividends, education systems reform, and labor market policy.
• Proven experience in designing or contributing to national-level strategy development, policy roadmaps, or comprehensive institutional reform reports for governments or international organizations
• Demonstrated, in-depth knowledge of the interlinkages between demographic trends, education quality, skills development, and social protection systems.
• Experience working in Central Asia or similar cultural contexts is an asset
• Experience working with Government organisations and/or international organizations 
• Skills in stakeholder coordination, including communication skills.
• Fluency in oral and written English. Knowledge of Russian is an advantage.

The consultancy fee will be calculated based on the P-5 level of the of the UN Salary Scale for Professional and higher categories effective 1 January 2025 and will be paid in a lump sum upon successful completion of deliverables.